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Confirmation Bias and the Apparency Paradox
In my day job, I’ve traveled a bit for work of late. I’m accustomed to carrying a water bottle with me most places.
On a recent trip, I went into the bathroom at the hotel to fill up my water bottle. Without checking the depth of the sink, I unscrewed the lid of my water bottle, set both bottle and lid aside, then took one of those paper cups wrapped in plastic, opened it, and began filling my water bottle one cup at a time. Three cupfuls in, I realized I was wasting more water between pours than I was getting into my water bottle.
“Huh,” I thought. “I wonder if my water bottle will fit in that sink.”
Turns out, it did. I was able to fill my water bottle the rest of the way without wasting another drop.
What happened?
There are two pervasive mental models that our brains employ unconsciously based on our life experience: confirmation bias and the apparency paradox.
Let’s discuss the last one first. The apparency paradox refers to a situation where something appears to be one way based on assumptions and initial experience, but when we look at it a little harder, we see things a different way. It’s a paradox because our perception and expectation based on our experience and appearances lead us to overlook practical or efficient solutions.
